Global Economic Policies

Gold: Market Volatality (May, 2023)

Gold experienced a notable pullback in May, frustrating many traders who had anticipated a strong seasonal trend. This decline was primarily driven by significant selling of gold futures in response to a sharp rally in the US dollar, which was partly fueled by hawkish comments from top Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. When these officials advocate for additional interest rate hikes, it tends to boost the dollar and trigger selling of gold futures. However, it is crucial for traders to not only observe the movements in gold or the US Dollar Index but also understand the underlying reasons for these fluctuations. Recently, Fedspeak has played an increasingly influential role in shaping market dynamics. In early May, gold's upward momentum gained strength, surging 26.3% in a span of 7.2 months to reach $2,050 per ounce on the 4th. This level was in close proximity to the metal's previous all-time closing high of $2,062 in early August 2020. The latest peak in gold prices ...

Federal Budget Strategy 2023-24 Pakistan

Introduction: The upcoming federal budget of Pakistan for 2023-24 holds significant importance, with speculations ranging from an election-focused budget filled with tax breaks and subsidies to a budget driven by the need for structural reforms and adherence to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreement. Striking a balance between these opposing pressures, the government must adopt a more nuanced budget strategy that encompasses progressive taxation, resource mobilization, and expenditure containment. This article aims to present a comprehensive budget strategy that creates fiscal space for providing relief to segments of the population severely impacted by unemployment and high inflation. Budget Targets for 2022-23: The ambitious federal budget for 2022-23 was formulated in consultation with the IMF, embodying key targets outlined in the IMF Staff statement following the completion of several reviews. The targets included a projected 5% economic growth rate, ...

USD/JPY Slides as US Producer Price Index Misses Expectations

The USD/JPY currency pair experienced a decline during the New York session, losing over 60 pips and trading at the 139.35 area. This drop was largely attributed to the Greenback facing significant selling pressure following the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which revealed lower-than-expected 'factory gate' inflation. The weakening of US bond yields, along with a surge in stock prices, favored the JPY and contributed to the downward pressure on the USD. The PPI report, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, indicated a monthly decrease of 0.3% in May, surpassing the anticipated 0.1% decline. Additionally, the year-on-year measure fell to 1.1%. Conversely, the Core PPI figure matched expectations, rising by 0.2% on a monthly basis, with the yearly measure standing at 2.8%. These disappointing PPI figures led to a decline in US bond yields across the curve, thereby further weighing on the USD. The 10-year bond yield fell to 3.79%, while the 2-year yie...

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